Oscar Predictions, 2016

Oscars 2015 are so yesterday. Hollywood is already beginning to predict 2016’s nominees:

IndieWire, “For Your Consideration: Yep, It’s The 2016 Oscar Predictions,” 2/27/15

Hollywood Reporter, “Oscars 2016: It’s Never Too Early for the Next Best Picture Predictions,” 2/23/15

Esquire, “14 Extremely Premature Predictions About the 2016 Oscars,” 3/9/15

Huffington Post – “Absurdly Early And Unnecessary Oscar Predictions For 2016,” – 2/23/15

These are indeed “premature.” Most of the movies won’t appear in theaters until this fall (it seems Academy members have poor memories, so producers hold off the release of films they consider Oscar bait until later in the year) and none of them have trailers yet, but the picks are useful as an index of which movies are heavily anticipated, by the Hollywood crowd, if not by book lovers.

Fourteen of the films are based on books, one on a Shakespeare play and another on a short story. The number of predictions, with the exception of Steve Jobs, are roughly in  reverse proportion to the popularity of the books they’re based on. The longest-running best seller of the group, The Light Between Oceans, gets just a single nod, for Best Actor, Michael Fassbender (he gets another Best Actor prediction for his lead role in Steve Jobs).

Below are the adaptations, in order by the most significant picks (for a full list of forthcoming movies, check our list of Upcoming Movies Based on Books).

9781250066626_2d55cThe Revenant, Release date, December 25, limited

Based on — Michael Punke,  The Revenant, originally published in 2002, the author’s first and so far only novel was re-released in hardcover this January by Macmillan/Picador. 


“Alejandro G. Inarritu follows Birdman with a period Western starring Tom Hardy and a bearded Leonardo DiCaprio as fur trappers in Indian country.” — The Hollywood Reporter

“… likely to entice Oscar consideration”  — Esquire

Best Picture — IndieWire, Huffington Post

Best Director, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu — IndieWire,  Huffington Post

Best Actor,  Leonardo DiCaprio — IndieWire, Huffington Post

Best Supporting Actor, Tom Hardy — IndieWire

9780393325997Carol, Release date Fall

Based on — Patricia Highsmith, The Price Of Salt, 1952 (available in trade paperback from Norton, 2004)

“The Weinsteins known how to mount an Oscar campaign, and this return to feature filmmaking by Todd Haynes (Far From Heaven) will surely capture its fair share of headlines, both for its illustrious cast and crew, and because it’s the story of a 1950s housewife (Cate Blanchett) who strikes up a clandestine lesbian affair with a young store clerk (Rooney Mara).” – Esquire

Best Picture — IndieWire, Huffington Post

Best Director, Todd Haynes — IndieWire, Huffington Post

Best Actress, Cate Blanchett — IndieWire,  Huffington Post

Best Supporting Actress, Rooney Mara — IndieWire, Huffington Post

After the jump; fourteen more highly-anticipated adaptations.

Steve JobsSteve Jobs, Release date October 9

Based on — Walter Isaacson, Steve Jobs, (Simon & Schuster, 2011)

” … a Steve Jobs biopic starring Michael Fassbender — who’s joined by Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, and Jeff Daniels—sounds like Oscar catnip.” — Esquire

“Can director Danny Boyle pull it off? Michael Fassbender stars as the Apple legend from a talky three-act script by Aaron Sorkin.” — The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture  —  Huffington Post

Best Actor, Michael Fassbender — IndieWire

Best Director, Alternate — Danny Boyle, IndieWire

Best Supporting Actress. Katherine Waterson — IndieWire

Best Supporting Actress, Alternate, Kate Winslet– IndieWire

9781439148952_33d23Brooklyn, Release date Nov 6, limited

Based on: Colm Toibin, Brooklyn, (S&S/Scribner; trade pbk, 9/1/15)

“After winning big at Sundance, and then being snatched up by Fox Searchlight following a fierce bidding war, this immigrant drama about a young Irish girl (Saoirse Ronan) who travels to New York in the 1950s may have the critical cache and period-piece-tearjerker appeal to woo voters.” — Esquire

Best Picture — IndieWire

Best Director, Alternate, John Crowley — IndieWire

Best Actress, Saorise Ronan — IndieWireHuffington Post

Trumbo, Release date TBD

Based on: Bruce Cook, Dalton Trumbo, (S&S/Scribner, 1977)

“Bryan Cranston stars in Jay Roach’s look at blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, whose story could resonate with Oscar voters looking to make amends.” The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture — IndieWire

Best Actor, Alternate, Bryan Cranston
— IndieWireHuffington Post

Best Supporting Actor, Alternate, John Goodman — IndieWire

Best Supporting Actress, Alternate, Helen Mirren — Huffington Post

9780140298482_581f7The Danish Girl, Release date Nov. 27

Based on: David Ebershoff, The Danish Girl, (Penguin Books, 2000; trade pbk cover now features “Soon to Be a Major Motion Picture” burst)

“Eddie Redmayne’s follow-up to his Oscar-winning The Theory of Everything turn … Another transformative role, it should elicit considerable Academy interest.” — Esquire

Best Picture, Alternate — IndieWire 

Best Actor, Eddie Redmayne  — IndieWire 

Best Actress, Alternate, Alicia Vikander  — IndieWire 

9781771960175_2904345 Years, Release date TBD

Based on: David  Constantine, “In Another Country,” short story, in the collection, In Another Country, (Biblioasis, June, 2015)

Best Picture, Alternate — IndieWire 

Best Actor, Alternate,  Tom Courtenay  — IndieWire 

Best Actress, Alternate, Charlotte Rampling  — IndieWire 

9780060798680Beasts of No Nation, Release date Fall

Based on: Uzodinma Iweala, Beasts Of No Nation, (HarperCollins, 2005; tie-in, 9/29/15)

True Detective director Cary Fukunaga’s adaptation of an acclaimed novel about African child soldiers seems like a formidable Topical Subject Matter drama, and the fact that it stars Idris Elba has us even more excited. As Netflix’s first theatrical release (it’ll simultaneously debut on select screens and on the streaming service), its novelty will also be enough to propel it into dinner-party conversations across the land.” —  Esquire

Best Supporting Actor,  Idris Elba —  IndieWire 

NOTE: The Netflix deal could throw Beasts of No Nation out of eligibility. The Academy rules that a movie has to have been shown in theaters to qualify for Oscar consideration and theatre owners are threatening to boycott the movie because Netflix intends to stream the it on release date.

Macbeth, Release date Fall

Based on: William Shakespeare, Macbeth,

“If the Weinsteins can’t spin Oscar gold with Carol, they may very well pull off the feat with this eagerly anticipated—and, from the sounds of it, rugged and intense—Shakespeare adaptation, which stars Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard, two Oscar favorites.” — Esquire

Best Supporting Actress, Alternate, Marion Cotillard — IndieWire

9780804173520_68f39Snowden, Release date Dec. 25

Based on: Harding, Luke, The Snowden Files: The Inside Story of the World’s Most Wanted Man, (RH/Vintage trade pbk original, 2014) and the novel, Time Of The Octopus, by Snowden’s Russian lawyer Anatoly Kucherena, not published in the U.S.

Best Picture — Huffington Post

Best Supporting Actress, Melissa Leo — Esquire

9781419701764Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Release date June 12

Based on: Jesse Andrews, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, (Abrams, 2012)

“It may be opening too early to remain in Academy members’ memory come voting time, but this indie about two movie-lovers caring for a girl dying of cancer was a huge hit at Sundance … Plus, it co-stars Parks and Recreation’s Nick Offerman, who deserves an Oscar just for existing.” — Esquire

“Like Whiplash and Boyhood, the Sundance breakout could go all the way to next year’s Oscars.” — The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture, Alternate — IndieWire

9780425223376Genius, Release date TBD

Based on: A. Scott  Berg, Max Perkins: Editor Of Genius, (Dutton, 1978; available in trade pbk. from Penguin Berkley)

Best Picture, Alternate — IndieWire

Best Supporting Actor, Alternate, Jude Law — IndieWire

Best Supporting Actress, Alternate, Nicole Kidman — IndieWire

9780307592439_19091The End of the Tour, Release date TBD

Based on: David Lipsky,  Although Of Course You End Up Becoming Yourself: A Road Trip With David Foster Wallace, (RH/Broadway Books, 2010)

Best Actor, Jason Segel — Huffington Post

Best Actor, Alternate, Jason Segel  — IndieWire

Best Supporting Actor, Alternate,  Jesse Eisenberg  — IndieWire

The Light Between Oceans, Trade PbkThe Light Between Oceans, Release date TBD

Based on: M.L Stedman, The Light Between Oceans, (S&S/Scribner, 2012; trade pbk. 8/4/15)

Best Actor,  Michael Fassbender — IndieWire



The Walk, Release date Oct 2

Based on: Philippe Petit, To Reach The Clouds: My High Wire Walk Between The Twin Towers, (North Point Press, 2002; currently available only in e-Book format)

Best Actor, Alternate,  Joseph Gordon-Levitt — IndieWire

9781590514504The Secret In Their Eyes, Release date Oct. 23

Based on: Eduardo A. Sacheri, The Secret In Their Eyes, (Other Press, 2011) — called a remake of the 2009 Oscar-winning Argentinian film, which is based on the book that was released in the U.S. in 2011

Best Actor,  Chiwetel Ejiofor — IndieWire

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